Humidor Redux

September 24th, 2008

Back in May, the Baseball Observer published this observation:

According to this article in NewsOK.com , the Humidifier was a failure from the beginning, contrary to what the full-time nut case and part time sports reporter for the Denver Post, Troy E. (the “E” is for ) has been vociferously claiming for years:

Rockies’ experiment with baseballs backfires
By Bill Sones and Rich Sones, Ph.D.
Strange but True
Q:What was the point of the Colorado Rockies baseball team placing balls in a high-humidity chamber for several months before games? Were they trying to cheat?
A:It was actually done in the name of fair play, New Scientist magazine says. The Rockies play in high-altitude Denver, where the thin air means batted baseballs travel up to 20 feet farther than at sea level. So, the humidity chambers were an attempt to tame down the overexuberant orbs. Then a team of University of Colorado researchers reported that the Rockies may have gotten things backward: Moisture may make the balls fly even farther. They found that two months in humidity of 30 to 50 percent increased the diameter of the balls by 0.24 percent and their mass by 1.6 percent. While it’s true the bigger, heavier, “squishier” balls come off the bat slightly more slowly and experience more drag, the extra mass more than compensates for these effects as the balls “take longer to decelerate,” and so carry farther. Moreover, the moist balls are harder for pitchers to curve and thus easier for sluggers to hit.

This proves, once and for all, what the Baseball Observer has said from the very beginning: there is no scientific or empirical evidence that storing baseballs in a humidifier makes the slightest bit of difference, except, obviously the psychological one.

Since then, a little more information has come afloat from newspaper articles and television reports. It turns out that Major League Baseball decided, in the interest of fairness, that all baseballs, in all parks, should meet minimum requirements for size, weight, and other, less obvious characteristics. Though neither side will admit it, this caused a change in the humidifier procedures at MillerCoors Field. In the above article, you will notice that they talk about storing the balls in the humidor for months (you may also note that we referred to it as a “humidifier” whereas the Rockies insist it is a “humidor”). What is happening now, at the direction of MLB, is that all balls are required to meet factory specifications. So, the heavier, “squishy” balls referred to above, would not be allowed today. Neither would the balls the Rockies used in the first few years at what used to be called Coors Field, because they were improperly stored and too old, dried out, and light weight to meet the standard.

Ideally, the teams should use balls that are as fresh as possible from the manufacturer and store them in a manner that does not change the condition of the ball in any way. If any team stores the balls such that moisure is added or removed, it is illegal. So, the humidor, when it is used legally, has no effect on the baseballs. The widely varying effects we saw in the Rockies first 10 years were likely a result of improperly buying and rotating the balls, then over-humidifying them when they began using the humidor. The Baseball Brass had to step in because of complaints from other teams, so now the Rockies are not altering the baseballs, with more normal results. Which of course means losing. The Baseball Observer wishes they would go back to the hard, dry, slick balls of the early years. They shouldn’t try to think, because they are not good at it. Things were good in those days, they should have left it alone.

82nd Loss Insures 11th Losing Season in 16

September 15th, 2008

The 2008 streak turned out to be losses instead of wins, the seventh of which was number 82, making a winning season impossible. However, the Rockies are still in the hunt for the division title, since Los Angeles and Arizona could both end up with worse records than Colorado, though it is unlikely, for the Dodgers, at least.

In any case, this proves last year was a fluke, since Rockies team management admits they have better talent and more experience than last year’s team, and injuries were not a big enough factor to explain why they just lost 7 in a row when they desperately needed to win. In the Baseball Observer’s book, 2008 is the most disappointing year in the Hurdle era. Nothing could exceed the disappointment of the Blake Street Bombers era when the Rockies clearly had the best team in baseball and were constantly sabotaged by the worst manager in baseball history, Don Baylor. But 2008 was close. The Rockies started out losing most of their games because their first act on the field was to taunt the Diamondbacks, which undoubtedly fired up the Arizona club and led to their winning streak in the Spring that included beating the Rockies 10 times out of 12 games. When the Rockies started to get better, the GM, “Dealin’” Dan O’Dowd did nothing to improve the team, and whenever he made a move, it turned out to be bad, as usual. Meanwhile, Hurdle continued in his usual managerial stupor, doing little or nothing to shake things up and get the team rolling in the winning direction. Rockies fans are loyal, and kept showing up for the games as long as the team still had a chance, but the 7 game losing streak this week poked a big hole in the balloon and fans won’t be filling old Miller/Molsen/Coors field for the rest of the season and will join with the fair weather press in raising the call for massive firings of Rockies management. 

The Rockies will always be a mediocre, small market team as long as the Monforts and their brain-dead trust are in charge because they are mediocre, small market managers. With decent owners and world-class baseball managers, Colorado will support a team with big market revenue that will allow them to run the best team in baseball with meaningful October games every year. The football, basketball, and hockey teams in Denver are usually in the playoff mix, not twice in 16 years, both flukes. If the Meatboys insist on keeping the team, they need to step back, get a president who has a consistent record of success, let him hire good baseball people and get people to market the team professionally for the first time in history. With a real GM and Manager, instead of yes-men, the team can dominate the National League West and challenge for the World Series every year. Denver, Colorado, and Rockies fans all over the world deserve nothing less, and if we don’t get it, the Monforts might as well move the team to Montreal because there will be more interest there than here!

Copyright The Baseball Observer, September 15, 2008

Rockies Won’t Let Fans Off The Hook

August 21st, 2008

It is tough to be a Rockies fan. The team is 59-70, 8 games out with 33 left to play. When they went 3-7 on a homestand a couple of weeks ago, to some pretty bad teams, most fans were ready to give up on them and start concentrating on football. Then, they go on a road trip to SoCal, never a good place for them, and almost sweep, ending up 5-1 after a one run loss in the final game. Now fans are thinking “Streak!” again and are expecting the Rockies to win nearly all of their remaining games and sweep into the World Series for the second year in a row.

No one really believes it can happen again, but the kind of fans the Rockies have built over the years with their bizarre handling of the team don’t know how to behave anymore.

Rockies Watch Cook Have A Rare Off Day and Lose 10-5

July 6th, 2008

Aaron Cook threw a 5-hit shutout that last time he pitched. This time he knew he had been selected for the All Star Game when he walked out to the mound.

How did he react?

By giving up 7 runs in 7 and a third innings and taking the loss to lower his record to a still-respectable 11-6 and raise his ERA from 3.38 to 3.66, still tops among Rockies starters. 

Making it to the All Star game was a foregone conclusion anyway, so Cook couldn’t have been surprised. With Hurdle as the Coach of the Midsummer Night’s Classic, on the strength of making it to the World Series with the biggest fluke streak in the history of professional sports, it was obvious that he would take his best pitcher with him.

He would have taken others as well, if they all didn’t suck so badly.

Hurdle got to participate in the World Series and the All Star game in what is probably his last year as a Major League manager, and he should consider himself extremely lucky, and thank his lucky stars that there are totally incompetent owners like the Monfort “Meat Boys” to give him a job and stick with him for all these years of total failure.

Anyway, Cook started out well, with a scoreless first, then was touched for one run in the second and two in the third inning. Then he cruised through the 4th and 5th, then gave up a duece in the sixth, which cost him the lead at 5-4. He escaped the 7th, but gave up a two-run homerun with one out in the eighth and was consigned to the showers, now down 7-4.

The relief staff wasn’t much better, after Grilli escaped the eighth with no further damage, Viscaino gave up two runs and Bowers allowed another. What can you expect from hurlers with 9.24 and 14.73 ERAs?

So, the home team took three out of four from the Marlins, who have been a surprisingly good team in 2008 and are still a contender in the Eastern Division, only a couple back of the Phillies. The Rockies have a pretty good win streak going, but at 37 up and 52 down, they would already be close to elimination if the rest of the Western Division hadn’t been doing so poorly. As it is, they are only seven back and could still make a run if they can put together a 20-game win streak like they did last year.

  

Rockies in Disarry; Local Pundits Running For Cover

June 2nd, 2008

The sports pundits from Denver newspapers, magazines, radio and TV stations, and most web sites, all predicted the Rockies would be contenders in 2008. They were caught up in the euphoria of the unbelievable trip the team made to the World Series in 2007, and would not believe that the Rockies would not continue their fabulous winning ways in the new season. Sort of the Obamamaniacs of Baseball, the Rockiemaniacs. They certainly didn’t listen to the Baseball Observer, even though we were the only ones to predict, back in April of 2007 that Colorado would make it to the World Series.

As you can readily verify on this page and others, the Baseball Observer predicted this years performance, noting that the combination of amazingly good health and an astounding number of “career years” accounted for last years performance and it could not happen again. It hasn’t, and it won’t.

The Rockies have wonderful talent on the field, but nothing but third rate people after that. Third-raters include the manager, Clint Hurdle, the GM “Feelin” Dan O’Dowd, the President, and of course the meat-headed principal owners the Monfort Twins. These guys are all on the baseball D-list. Nobody else would hire them, because they didn’t know what they were doing in the beginning, and they haven’t learned much from their plethora of mistakes. You can’t mix first-rate people with third-rate ones, because they just drop to their level, as was proven by Jim Leyland, who counts as the only blemish on a certain Hall of Fame career, the year he spent in Denver being dragged down to the level of the Monforts and O’Dowd.

Humidor Quietly Abandoned by Rockies?

May 28th, 2008

According to this article in NewsOK.com , the Humidifier was a failure from the beginning, contrary to what the full-time nut case and part time sports reporter for the Denver Post, Troy E. (the “E” is for ) has been vociferously claiming for years:

Rockies’ experiment with baseballs backfires
By Bill Sones and Rich Sones, Ph.D.
Strange but True
Q:What was the point of the Colorado Rockies baseball team placing balls in a high-humidity chamber for several months before games? Were they trying to cheat?
A:It was actually done in the name of fair play, New Scientist magazine says. The Rockies play in high-altitude Denver, where the thin air means batted baseballs travel up to 20 feet farther than at sea level. So, the humidity chambers were an attempt to tame down the overexuberant orbs. Then a team of University of Colorado researchers reported that the Rockies may have gotten things backward: Moisture may make the balls fly even farther. They found that two months in humidity of 30 to 50 percent increased the diameter of the balls by 0.24 percent and their mass by 1.6 percent. While it’s true the bigger, heavier, “squishier” balls come off the bat slightly more slowly and experience more drag, the extra mass more than compensates for these effects as the balls “take longer to decelerate,” and so carry farther. Moreover, the moist balls are harder for pitchers to curve and thus easier for sluggers to hit.

This proves, once and for all, what the Baseball Observer has said from the very beginning: there is no scientific or empirical evidence that storing baseballs in a humidifier makes the slightest bit of difference, except, obviously the psychological one.

 

Blogging

May 26th, 2008

Blogging

Rockies Fans Can Expect An Exciting 2008

April 2nd, 2008

The Colorado Rockies in the past were an exciting team. Unfortunately, they lacked one thing that would have made them exciting where it really counts. In the postseason. It wasn’t always the same one thing, either. For the first 8 years of their existence, you could say they were missing a manager, but you would be wrong. It was worse than that, they had a manager who was so bad that they would have been better off with no manager at all. During several of those years, the Rockies had the talent to go to the postseason and do some serious damage. They even made it one year, 1995, because the season suddenly ended due to the player strike, too soon for the anti-manager, Don Baylor, to blow it. He was able to blow it in the playoffs, however, turning sure wins at home into defeats with horrible, inexplicable managerial decisions. After he left the Rockies, he finally reached his true potential, leading the Chicago Cubs to the worst season in that franchise’s woeful history.

The Rockies were exciting and they were also wildly popular, continuously selling out the cavernous Mile High Stadium through the first two years, then the smaller Coors/Molsen Field on Blake Street. You could feel the air start to leak out of the big purple balloon when they blew the playoffs in 1995 and Baylor arrogantly refused to learn from his boatload of mistakes. Crowds began to diminish until virtually the entire city became oblivious to the existence of baseball except on those rare weekends when the Nuggets, Avalanche, Broncos, Rapids, Mammoth, or Crush were not playing. Revenues began a steep descent as the brilliant management responded by relentlessly raising prices, changing managers, dumping the most popular star players, and finally killing the greatest feature of Coors/Molsen Field, the Monster Homer by soaking all the baseballs in brine. Then, all of a sudden, the Miracle of ’07 happened and people are excited about the Rockies again.

Through it all, though, the Rockies were an exciting team, even though they played horrible, undisciplined, losing baseball, primarily because they had a clueless front office, and with the exception of Jim Leland and Buddy Bell, the worst managers in the history of Baseball.

This year’s team will bring more excitement than any other, because there will be huge crowds of crazy fans eager to cheer the team on to the World Series. After last year, where the team was on the verge of being eliminated and yet held on for the Wild Card by winning 95% of their remaining games, the fans will believe the Rockies still have a chance in 2008, no matter how far behind they fall.

Unfortunately, this year’s group has nearly as many canyons as it has mountains. They may have the most potent offense in Baseball, and a great statistical defense. But they also have a pitching staff that is extremely suspect, particularly the starters, along with a starting catcher that can’t throw out runners, a rookie at second base, a leadoff hitter who can’t hit, a left fielder that can’t play left field, a buffoon for a manager, and a front office that thinks stumbling around in the dark is innovation. Also, other teams made sure not to waste their best pitchers on the Rockies in the past, but now they will all be gunning for them. Hitting may keep them from falling into the cellar, but unless the entire pitching staff has injury-free career years, they won’t have much of a chance of winning the division, although San Diego, Arizona, and Los Angeles have significant weaknesses as well. We won’t even mention the Giants. The Rockies may ride their offense into the playoffs again, but they won’t be as lucky as last year, when they got to face weak teams in the playoffs as a result of other miracles. In 2008, they Mets or whoever the Central division champs are, will probably beat the Rockies easily.

Staying close and making the playoffs is really all that is called for this year. Dropping low in the standings with no postseason will send the fans scurrying like rats to attend the aforementioned Denver Sports Teams.

Colorado Rockies 2008 Outlook

March 30th, 2008

They are the defending National League Champs, just as the Baseball Observer predicted before the season last year. In fact, the Observer has been uncannily accurate with Rockies predictions for all 15 years of the Colorado team’s existence. That puts the pressure on for 2008. Virtually every media outlet outside of Denver is predicting that the Rockies will return to form in 2008, and finish fourth in the West, ahead of only the woeful Giants of San Francisco. The pundits feel that the “Rocktober Streak”, when Clint’s cadre won an amazing 20 of 21 games, was a class A, lead-pipe fluke. They say most of the team had career years on the mound, at the plate, and in the field. They don’t have any respect for Hurdle as a manager, and they don’t think the team can escape major injuries to key players as they did in 2007. On the other hand, the Denver media outlets all predict the Rockies will easily advance to the World Series and will win it in 2008.

As usual, they are both wrong. The Rockies did perform as a 4th place team up until the last three weeks of the season, and the stretch run was not so much a fluke as a series of fortunate events. As a result of the streak and the visit to the Fall Classic, the Rockies have finally moved to the next level. They have progressed beyond the perennial last or next to the last place team into the land of solid mediocrity. Last year, we compared them to the Montreal Expos of the 1980′s who had good teams because they recruited great young talent, but never moved into greatness because they couldn’t afford to sign their stars to long term contracts. The Rockies are in the same boat. They have managed to sign the current group of stars, but they won’t be able to sign the next group to fill up the holes they need to plug to move into the dynasty role. So, the Rockies are will remain mediocre. They had their moment in the sun, and now they will settle into the annoying Chicago Cubs syndrome, coming close year after year, but never approaching the dizzying heights of 2007.

We believe Colorado will finish 2nd in the Western Division in 2008, and probably won’t be good enough to be the Wild Card.  Furthermore, 2008 will be a prototype year for many to come. Colorado fans will remain entranced by the team, and remembering 2007, they will spend the end of each season breathlessly waiting for another streak that will never come. What certainly will come are higher prices. They may even get to the playoffs one of these years, but probably won’t make it back to the World Series in any of our lifetimes.

ESPN mlb team

March 30th, 2008

ESPN mlb team