The Baseball Observer

Aaron Cook threw a 5-hit shutout that last time he pitched. This time he knew he had been selected for the All Star Game when he walked out to the mound.

How did he react?

By giving up 7 runs in 7 and a third innings and taking the loss to lower his record to a still-respectable 11-6 and raise his ERA from 3.38 to 3.66, still tops among Rockies starters. 

Making it to the All Star game was a foregone conclusion anyway, so Cook couldn’t have been surprised. With Hurdle as the Coach of the Midsummer Night’s Classic, on the strength of making it to the World Series with the biggest fluke streak in the history of professional sports, it was obvious that he would take his best pitcher with him.

He would have taken others as well, if they all didn’t suck so badly.

Hurdle got to participate in the World Series and the All Star game in what is probably his last year as a Major League manager, and he should consider himself extremely lucky, and thank his lucky stars that there are totally incompetent owners like the Monfort “Meat Boys” to give him a job and stick with him for all these years of total failure.

Anyway, Cook started out well, with a scoreless first, then was touched for one run in the second and two in the third inning. Then he cruised through the 4th and 5th, then gave up a duece in the sixth, which cost him the lead at 5-4. He escaped the 7th, but gave up a two-run homerun with one out in the eighth and was consigned to the showers, now down 7-4.

The relief staff wasn’t much better, after Grilli escaped the eighth with no further damage, Viscaino gave up two runs and Bowers allowed another. What can you expect from hurlers with 9.24 and 14.73 ERAs?

So, the home team took three out of four from the Marlins, who have been a surprisingly good team in 2008 and are still a contender in the Eastern Division, only a couple back of the Phillies. The Rockies have a pretty good win streak going, but at 37 up and 52 down, they would already be close to elimination if the rest of the Western Division hadn’t been doing so poorly. As it is, they are only seven back and could still make a run if they can put together a 20-game win streak like they did last year.

The sports pundits from Denver newspapers, magazines, radio and TV stations, and most web sites, all predicted the Rockies would be contenders in 2008. They were caught up in the euphoria of the unbelievable trip the team made to the World Series in 2007, and would not believe that the Rockies would not continue their fabulous winning ways in the new season. Sort of the Obamamaniacs of Baseball, the Rockiemaniacs. They certainly didn’t listen to the Baseball Observer, even though we were the only ones to predict, back in April of 2007 that Colorado would make it to the World Series.

As you can readily verify on this page and others, the Baseball Observer predicted this years performance, noting that the combination of amazingly good health and an astounding number of “career years” accounted for last years performance and it could not happen again. It hasn’t, and it won’t.

The Rockies have wonderful talent on the field, but nothing but third rate people after that. Third-raters include the manager, Clint Hurdle, the GM “Feelin” Dan O’Dowd, the President, and of course the meat-headed principal owners the Monfort Twins. These guys are all on the baseball D-list. Nobody else would hire them, because they didn’t know what they were doing in the beginning, and they haven’t learned much from their plethora of mistakes. You can’t mix first-rate people with third-rate ones, because they just drop to their level, as was proven by Jim Leyland, who counts as the only blemish on a certain Hall of Fame career, the year he spent in Denver being dragged down to the level of the Monforts and O’Dowd.

According to this article in NewsOK.com , the Humidifier was a failure from the beginning, contrary to what the full-time nut case and part time sports reporter for the Denver Post, Troy E. (the “E” is for ) has been vociferously claiming for years:

Rockies’ experiment with baseballs backfires
By Bill Sones and Rich Sones, Ph.D.
Strange but True
Q:What was the point of the Colorado Rockies baseball team placing balls in a high-humidity chamber for several months before games? Were they trying to cheat?
A:It was actually done in the name of fair play, New Scientist magazine says. The Rockies play in high-altitude Denver, where the thin air means batted baseballs travel up to 20 feet farther than at sea level. So, the humidity chambers were an attempt to tame down the overexuberant orbs. Then a team of University of Colorado researchers reported that the Rockies may have gotten things backward: Moisture may make the balls fly even farther. They found that two months in humidity of 30 to 50 percent increased the diameter of the balls by 0.24 percent and their mass by 1.6 percent. While it’s true the bigger, heavier, “squishier” balls come off the bat slightly more slowly and experience more drag, the extra mass more than compensates for these effects as the balls “take longer to decelerate,” and so carry farther. Moreover, the moist balls are harder for pitchers to curve and thus easier for sluggers to hit.

This proves, once and for all, what the Baseball Observer has said from the very beginning: there is no scientific or empirical evidence that storing baseballs in a humidifier makes the slightest bit of difference, except, obviously the psychological one.

The Colorado Rockies in the past were an exciting team. Unfortunately, they lacked one thing that would have made them exciting where it really counts. In the postseason. It wasn’t always the same one thing, either. For the first 8 years of their existence, you could say they were missing a manager, but you would be wrong. It was worse than that, they had a manager who was so bad that they would have been better off with no manager at all. During several of those years, the Rockies had the talent to go to the postseason and do some serious damage. They even made it one year, 1995, because the season suddenly ended due to the player strike, too soon for the anti-manager, Don Baylor, to blow it. He was able to blow it in the playoffs, however, turning sure wins at home into defeats with horrible, inexplicable managerial decisions. After he left the Rockies, he finally reached his true potential, leading the Chicago Cubs to the worst season in that franchise’s woeful history.

The Rockies were exciting and they were also wildly popular, continuously selling out the cavernous Mile High Stadium through the first two years, then the smaller Coors/Molsen Field on Blake Street. You could feel the air start to leak out of the big purple balloon when they blew the playoffs in 1995 and Baylor arrogantly refused to learn from his boatload of mistakes. Crowds began to diminish until virtually the entire city became oblivious to the existence of baseball except on those rare weekends when the Nuggets, Avalanche, Broncos, Rapids, Mammoth, or Crush were not playing. Revenues began a steep descent as the brilliant management responded by relentlessly raising prices, changing managers, dumping the most popular star players, and finally killing the greatest feature of Coors/Molsen Field, the Monster Homer by soaking all the baseballs in brine. Then, all of a sudden, the Miracle of ‘07 happened and people are excited about the Rockies again.

Through it all, though, the Rockies were an exciting team, even though they played horrible, undisciplined, losing baseball, primarily because they had a clueless front office, and with the exception of Jim Leland and Buddy Bell, the worst managers in the history of Baseball.

This year’s team will bring more excitement than any other, because there will be huge crowds of crazy fans eager to cheer the team on to the World Series. After last year, where the team was on the verge of being eliminated and yet held on for the Wild Card by winning 95% of their remaining games, the fans will believe the Rockies still have a chance in 2008, no matter how far behind they fall.

Unfortunately, this year’s group has nearly as many canyons as it has mountains. They may have the most potent offense in Baseball, and a great statistical defense. But they also have a pitching staff that is extremely suspect, particularly the starters, along with a starting catcher that can’t throw out runners, a rookie at second base, a leadoff hitter who can’t hit, a left fielder that can’t play left field, a buffoon for a manager, and a front office that thinks stumbling around in the dark is innovation. Also, other teams made sure not to waste their best pitchers on the Rockies in the past, but now they will all be gunning for them. Hitting may keep them from falling into the cellar, but unless the entire pitching staff has injury-free career years, they won’t have much of a chance of winning the division, although San Diego, Arizona, and Los Angeles have significant weaknesses as well. We won’t even mention the Giants. The Rockies may ride their offense into the playoffs again, but they won’t be as lucky as last year, when they got to face weak teams in the playoffs as a result of other miracles. In 2008, they Mets or whoever the Central division champs are, will probably beat the Rockies easily.

Staying close and making the playoffs is really all that is called for this year. Dropping low in the standings with no postseason will send the fans scurrying like rats to attend the aforementioned Denver Sports Teams.

They are the defending National League Champs, just as the Baseball Observer predicted before the season last year. In fact, the Observer has been uncannily accurate with Rockies predictions for all 15 years of the Colorado team’s existence. That puts the pressure on for 2008. Virtually every media outlet outside of Denver is predicting that the Rockies will return to form in 2008, and finish fourth in the West, ahead of only the woeful Giants of San Francisco. The pundits feel that the “Rocktober Streak”, when Clint’s cadre won an amazing 20 of 21 games, was a class A, lead-pipe fluke. They say most of the team had career years on the mound, at the plate, and in the field. They don’t have any respect for Hurdle as a manager, and they don’t think the team can escape major injuries to key players as they did in 2007. On the other hand, the Denver media outlets all predict the Rockies will easily advance to the World Series and will win it in 2008.

As usual, they are both wrong. The Rockies did perform as a 4th place team up until the last three weeks of the season, and the stretch run was not so much a fluke as a series of fortunate events. As a result of the streak and the visit to the Fall Classic, the Rockies have finally moved to the next level. They have progressed beyond the perennial last or next to the last place team into the land of solid mediocrity. Last year, we compared them to the Montreal Expos of the 1980’s who had good teams because they recruited great young talent, but never moved into greatness because they couldn’t afford to sign their stars to long term contracts. The Rockies are in the same boat. They have managed to sign the current group of stars, but they won’t be able to sign the next group to fill up the holes they need to plug to move into the dynasty role. So, the Rockies are will remain mediocre. They had their moment in the sun, and now they will settle into the annoying Chicago Cubs syndrome, coming close year after year, but never approaching the dizzying heights of 2007.

We believe Colorado will finish 2nd in the Western Division in 2008, and probably won’t be good enough to be the Wild Card.  Furthermore, 2008 will be a prototype year for many to come. Colorado fans will remain entranced by the team, and remembering 2007, they will spend the end of each season breathlessly waiting for another streak that will never come. What certainly will come are higher prices. They may even get to the playoffs one of these years, but probably won’t make it back to the World Series in any of our lifetimes.

ESPN mlb team

April 1, 2007. Remember the Montreal Expos in 1981? For years they had been patiently grooming their farm system to produce a steady stream of top notch talent, only to lose them to free agency due to their limited budget. But in one glorious year, the Expos got the right combination of cheap veterans and young talent together and were headed for the best record in baseball and a great shot at the World Series. Then came the strike, but that’s another story. Nobody predicted that Montreal would be that good, much like nobody in the mainstream media is predicting great things for the Colorado Rockies this year.
But they are all wrong this time. Even with the worst ownership, General Manager, and field manager in Baseball, the “Meat Brothers” Monfort, Dealin’ Dan O’Dowd, and Clint “Rube” Hurdle respectively, the stars or whatever are aligned and the Rockies will have their hundred year high water point in 2007. The Baseball Observer is predicting the Rockies will win 93 games and win the Division by at least 5 games. Not only that, but they will cruise through the playoffs and take the Angels to 6 games before losing.
The biggest reason for their success, ironically, will be the propagation throughout the league of their ridiculous humidifier. As other teams will discover, using the humidifier has the main effect of negating home field advantage. Pitching is enhanced and hitting is depressed. Hitters can’t get used to hitting the heavy, cold, wet balls. But the Rockies have been using it for years, and thus will have a short window of tremendous advantage.  2007 is the Rockies’ year. If they can’t do it now, it may take them longer than the Cubs. Except they don’t have the luxury of rabid fans who will fill the stadium every day. That ship has sailed in Colorado. If they don’t win soon, they will be gone, either disbanded or moved to another city. Thanks, Monforts.
Anyway, the Baseball Observer is tired of picking the Rockies to finish last, as everyone else is again this year. Every dog has his day, so let’s hope this is the Rockies’. If not, well it is April 1st.

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Imaginary humidor effects…
Troy E. Renck has a tough job. He’s a baseball writer in what is quickly becoming the smallest professional baseball market in the US, due in large part to his own efforts. He also writes for a paper that considers mediocrity the ultimate goal, much like the Rockies’ management team. Worse, he seems to know very little about baseball in general and has no interest in learning about it. Worse yet, he apparently has no imagination and has such contempt for his readers that he just keeps writing the same old stories over and over again. His favorite these days is the fable that he has concocted, saying that the so-called “humidor” has revolutionized baseball in Denver.

This week’s pathetic installment is entitled “Deflating Coors levels playing field” in the Sports section of Sunday’s Denver Post.

Vague quotes from dubious experts…
Renck starts out by taking a quote out of context from former Rockies outfielder Preston Wilson, referring to Coors field “playing so much different”. Wilson doesn’t refer directly to the baseballs being humidified, but Renck pretends that he does. Next he tries to legitimize his source by saying “Wilson knows power. So when discussing how the game has changed on Blake Street, he has credibility”. This assertion is absolutely ridiculous. How would Wilson know power? What does that mean anyway? Is he saying that any player that hits 30 homeruns or more “knows power”?

Contradiction #1
If Troy E. thinks Wilson is a power expert because he once hit 36 homeruns for the Rockies, than why does he say in another article “With 30 homeruns again meaning something in baseball”? He obviously thinks that, during the last few years, hitting 30 homeruns didn’t mean anything, except in the case of Wilson, because he wants to use him as a power expert.

Contradiction #2
Wilson isn’t really known as a power hitter. This year, he hit 15 in 71 games with the Rockies (10 at Coors) and only 7 in 52 games with Washington, so far. Yes, MORE homeruns at Coors field than anywhere else, so actual statistics with Wilson contradict Renck’s theory.

Contradiction #3
Next, the vapid Post reporter states: “the humidor’s role can’t be overstated in the transformation of Coors Light Field”. That statement is obviously false, as he overstates the effect of the humidor (actually a refrigerator) to the extreme continuously.

Lies and Statistics
In an amazing display of just making up numbers to prove his point, Renck says “Scoring is down 16 percent this season. Homeruns have fallen by 33 percent.” Apparently he is comparing this year’s figures against last year. The Rockies have been using the humidifier since 2002, so any variance can only be attributed to other factors, not the humidifier. Or is his contention that by storing the balls a little longer in the same humidifier, these drastic changes were wrought? If he believes that, he needs more help than we thought.

Contradiction #4
Actually, Troy also attributes some of the scoring drought to “longer infield grass”. Maybe they are using grainier dirt and putting chemicals in the water, too. Anyway, his next conclusion is that it is “beneficial to the franchise’s long-term health”. That is biggest contradiction of them all. With this new level playing field Renck is so pleased with, the Rockies have the worst record in the National League and their attendance is down over 20% under last year’s, with less than half the paid admissions of just 7 years ago. That’s not healthy for any business.

Another insane statement
“The Rockies can employ one style at home and on the road, instead of constantly trying to reinvent themselves when they board a plane.” Yes, and that style is known as LOSING. The Rockies have not improved their record on the road, they reduced their percentage of victories at home. So, they are lousy, but at least they are consistent. Now that’s what we call “beneficial to the franchise’s long-term health”.

Another one…
“Before, with Coors Field hosting Arena Baseball, there was little reason to think the Rockies would ever reach the World Series”. But now there is, girls and boys, because they are going to have the worst, or second worst win-loss record in franchise history, the lowest attendance ever, and the second to the worst pitching staff in the National League. There are not many people that expect to see the Rockies in the World Series in their lifetime.

And Yet another…
“Now it’s possible to consistently pitch well at Coors Field,” says the confused scribe. That would be news to anyone who can read statistics, as the Rockies pitching staff is the third worst in Baseball, ahead of only Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City.

And finally, in closing, utter banality
“It’s easy to bash the humidor, but the reality is few teams ever slug their way to championships. It (the humidor/refrigerator) appears the best solution to creating a more level playing field at 5,280 feet.” That is just another in a long series of unsubstantiated, and erroneous statements. Troy doesn’t give any indication of what he means by slugging, but I would say that both teams in the World Series last year, in large part slugged their way there. And, the same is true for at least one of the teams in the World Series for as long as I can remember, back to the 1959 classic between the “Go-Go” White Sox and the punchless Los Angeles Dodgers.

Last, but not least, a word from the pitching coach…
Renck closes with a quote from Bob Apodaca, who has coached the Rockies pitching staff to near the bottom of the heap: “You look at all the teams in the playoffs every year and the common thread is pitching and defense.” Great observation, Bob, so I guess that means if you took Chipper and Andru Jones away from the Braves, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox, and Alex Gonzalez and Gary Sheffield away from the Yankees, etc., they would be just as good. Try this: name a great team with no sluggers, then name a great team with at least two sluggers. Good luck on the “no sluggers” teams.

Getting Real
Here is the real truth, which Troy E. Renck should see if he wasn’t living in some dream world.

• The humidor has little, if any effect on games at Coors field. Any decline in offensive numbers at Coors is more than explained by lack of talent on the Rockies and in the all of Baseball, particularly the NL West, and the end of the Steroid Era, which Renck conveniently ignores, unless it suites his purpose.
• If the humidor did cause the results attributed to it by Renck, it should obviously be banned by Major League Baseball. No team should be able to manipulate the tools of the game for any reason, even if it isn’t to their own advantage.
• Nobody wants to see shorter, low-scoring baseball games, as the 2,000,000 plus fans who no longer attend Rockies games will attest.
• With possibly the worst pitching staff in baseball, the Rockies will not win for years, if not decades without spending money. But the owners won’t do it.
• No team wins on pitching and defense alone, and even if they did, no one would come to the games.
• Renck’s job should be to make baseball more interesting and thus more compelling to fans. Constant harping about electrical appliances and their supposed effect on the game has the opposite effect. Renck and his cronies at the Post are, in large part responsible for the decline of the game in Denver. Thanks, Troy!

The Rockies Famous Humidor and The End of Baseball As We Know It
History:
In the year 2001, some genius decided to test the moisture content of one or more of the baseballs stored on a shelf in the Coors Field Clubhouse. Using some heretofore undisclosed method, it was determined that the balls were too dry. It is not known what part of the ball was too dry, but the Rockies decided that the solution was to store all of the balls in a humidor until they were removed to be used in a game. Whether that solved the problem has never been disclosed. The only way to tell, of course, would be to cut the ball apart and test it, which would be impractical. So, here we have the first great leaps of faith because all of the following postulates were (and are) assumed to be true, in the total absence of empirical evidence:

Nobody wants dry balls, that’s a given. According to pitchers, dry balls are slippery and hard to grip. They should know.

But, the Rockies are not so much interested in the dryness of the balls, but in their weight and circumferance. According to the Rockies, before the humidor, balls weighing as little as 4.6 ounces and measuring 8.5 inches were put into play. Major League Baseball mandates that balls weigh 5.0 to 5.25 ounces and measure from 9.0 to 9.25 inches in circumference. They say tests have shown that balls on the lower end of the specifications will travel nearly 50 feet further than balls on the high end, when “well struck”.

This brings up a lot more questions than it answers. Since all balls are supposedly rubbed with mud by the umpires before the game to remove the sheen, how could one be more slippery than another, regardless of the humidity? Of course a smaller, lighter ball will fly further, but shouldn’t it also be easier to grip and throw with more velocity, thus being more difficult to hit? Does anyone really believe that re-humidifying a ball will make it grow .75 inches and .65 ounces? Were any of these tests conducted scientifically? How many feet did the “well struck” ball travel? What was the percentage difference? Was it pitched, or hit off a tee?

If the “reporter” at the Post had wanted to make the case that the humidifier makes a difference, he would have done his homework and showed that the same players had different results pre- and post-humidifier. And he would have done some analysis of the players on the teams for the years in question to present a balanced and more accurate picture of the supposed affect of the appliance. Why didn’t he take those steps? There were probably several good reasons, in his mind. First, and foremost, he is profoundly lazy, and prefers to try to make his points with the flimsiest of anecdotal evidence, rather than put in the time to show some integrity. Secondly, the Post encourages their “reporters” to act in that manner. Thirdly, why put in the time, when he knew the facts wouldn’t support his (ridiculous) statements, anyway?

Once again, the actual truth of the matter is that the humidifier probably has no affect whatever. If it does have an effect, it is bad for Denver, and bad for the game of baseball. In the interest of fairness and the integrity of Baseball, all teams should use the humidifier, which is also a cooler, by the way, since it keeps the balls at a constant temperature lower than the outside value. Or, even better, no teams should use artificial contrivances to alter the size, shape, and weight of the baseball. You can’t tell me that the way other teams store their balls don’t affect them. Lets have someone measure and weigh all of the balls to be used in games for a couple of months to see if there are differences. But Baseball doesn’t want to do that, of course, because they know what they would find - that there are significant differences between parks. Then what? It’s better to leave it alone.