March 27, 2004

TUCSON - Despite the cheery taste of the Kool-Aid - sort of a mango thing - I am sorry to report the Rockies' latest plan has a flaw about a mile high.

Meet the new flaw, same as the old flaw.

Unfortunately, they face an obstacle the A's don't, and money is at the root of their failure to deal with it.

GM Dan O'Dowd, the one club official who once wanted to face it, now parrots the convenient - and, I'm afraid, patently ridiculous - position that it is mostly a psychological problem.

In other areas, including personnel, -O'Dowd has been brutally honest with himself about past failings. But the evidence suggests Rockies owners decided not to address the altitude issue because they didn't want to spend the money, and now even O'Dowd is reasoning in reverse to justify this decision.

It is bad enough that Greeley's Cliff Neeley, an independent entrepreneur, has to do the research for them. It's as if the Rockies gave their Rubik's Cube one look, shrugged and went out for pizza.

Once the statistical anomalies became apparent early on, the organization should have devoted significant resources to the atmospheric research Neeley has done. It's the Rockies' dumb luck that he did it without them. When he proposed a solution, they took one look at the price tag and walked away.

Neeley downsized his proposal, but Rockies owners, facing a series of cash calls, are not prepared to spend a dime. So Neeley is now recruiting his own investors to support a novel commercial enterprise that might end up helping an organization that won't help itself.

The facts are familiar: Playing in the most hitter-friendly venue in major league history, the Rocks become accustomed to the conditions and struggle elsewhere:

In 1999, they ranked first in hitting at home (.325) and 28th on the road (.248). Again in 2000, they ranked first at home (.334) and 28th on the road (.252). In 2001, they were first at home (.331) and 25th on the road (.253). In 2002, they were first at home (.313) and 30th, or last, on the road (.234).

Unwilling to face the physics, the Rockies announced the problem was physiological - playing at altitude was tiring them out. So last year, they made a big deal of changing their workout habits. The result?

They ranked second in hitting at home (.294) and 30th on the road (.239).

No other franchise has such a consistent, dramatic disparity.

Why? The science is elementary. There's less air resistance a mile high than at sea level. Pitches have less movement. That makes hitting easier. Hitters get used to those conditions, and the first few pitchers on the road look like Sandy Koufax.

The same science explains the difference in lift characteristics for aircraft at altitude. These are not state secrets.

I suggested development of a high-altitude baseball. The Rockies chuckled.

Neeley suggested an enormous, pressurized chamber in which hitters could take batting practice in sea level conditions so they would be prepared for the road. The Rockies got sticker shock and passed.

Neeley kept downsizing his proposal to make it cheaper. He had a $6 million, two-station version that would fit inside Coors Field. He offered to lease it for a fraction of that. The Rocks passed again. He's now raising money for a single-station, $3 million version, or one-quarter what Larry Walker will make this season.

"I think that the altitude issue has created a mind-set here, which has led to an attitude problem here," O'Dowd told me last week. "It's this beast that's over us constantly, and we look at it as an obstacle, rather than looking at it for what it is."

Which is?

"Mentally, if you allow it, it's going to cause you problems."

So you don't believe it's an actual, physical effect?

"I do, and you know that I do because I've already come out publicly and talked about it, but I'm beginning to believe that that effect is as much mental as anything. I think it's as much mental as it is physical, and maybe more."

Which, of course, means he doesn't have to spend any money on it.

A high school science teacher can show O'Dowd in 20 minutes why the same pitch will move more in San Francisco than in Denver. Each new roster O'Dowd assembles has the same problem with that transition.

That's not psychology or physiology. That's physics. And embarrassingly elementary physics at that.

The Rockies are just too cheap to deal with it. There's your attitude problem.